Is the second wave over? Positivity rate less than 5% from 14 days, but experts are confused

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New DelhiThere is no concrete definition of when a wave of corona ends and when it starts. It is a different matter that the World Health Organization (WHO) has definitely made some parameters. These parameters are used to open an area or start activities. These say an area must be five percent or less for 14 days before reopening. On Monday, for the 14th consecutive day in the country, the positivity rate (infection rate) was less than five percent. Despite this, experts are hesitant to announce the end. What is the reason for this? Come, let’s know the answer to this question here. There were 53,256 cases of Covid-19 in the country on Monday. These are the lowest in the last 88 days. The positivity rate i.e. infection rate has also come down to 3.83 percent. This makes it seem that the current phase of the Covid-19 crisis is over and it is time to end the restrictions. However, caution is also needed with this optimistic scenario. The reason is that many scientists say that the total cases are still very high. In some districts the infection rate is more than five percent. There are also doubts about the reliability of the data. Naga Suresh Veerappu, Associate Professor at the School of Natural Sciences, Shiv Nadar University, Delhi-NCR, said, “With the current infection rate of less than five percent, India’s second wave of Covid-19 progressed as fast as it is now vulnerable. It’s over. But, with the advent of infectious forms like Delta Plus, it may not have ended. The ‘Delta Plus’ variant of the Corona is made up of a variation on the Delta variant or B1.617.2. The Delta variant was first identified in India. It has played a major role in the second wave in the country and in the spread of infection to other places, including the UK.

What are the standards?
The World Health Organization (WHO) states that the infection rate should be five percent or less for 14 days before an area can be reopened. Public policy expert Chandrakant Laharia said that the cases are coming down. But, the total cases are still very high. He said, ‘Of course the infection rate has come down at the national level. However, there are many districts where this rate is more than five per cent. Before saying that the second wave is over, I would like to see the infection rate come down by five per cent in all those areas where this rate is high.

Positivity rate high in many states
Scientist Gautam Menon also agreed with Laharia and mentioned that in some states like Kerala, the infection rate is more than five percent. He said it was unclear whether this was happening because of better testing compared to other states or whether the situation was yet to improve there. The infection rate in Kerala was 10.84 percent on Sunday. “There is no concrete definition of a wave as to when it will end, but activities can be resumed by taking precautions,” said Menon, a professor in the Physics and Biology departments of Ashoka University in Haryana. Experts believe that important information from the infection rate can be obtained only if there is widespread investigation in all areas. Veerappu said that people with no symptoms or mild symptoms are not coming forward for testing. Many cases do not come up because of this. “We need to step up the vaccination campaign, improve the health infrastructure, improve public health policy in view of the threat of a third wave,” he said.

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[Attribution to NBT]

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